Back to the Future: How To Think About AI In 2024

Apparently, thinking my dog loves me is a big no-no. “Anthropomorphizing” is a cognitive bias, and Daniel Kahneman will revoke my degree for that.

But, hold on.

Why shouldn’t I assume dogs have human characteristics? Our DNA is 95% identical! Evolution doesn’t start over. It builds on previous work.

And there’s a lesson here.

Generative AI has everyone freaking out.

Search is dead!

AI will replace everything!

Maybe — but I don’t think so. When Bayesian algorithms hit enterprise search, we were sure they’d replace “keyword search.” Then, lo and behold, Bayesian proponents were quietly adding old-fashioned keyword search back in. And the same thing will likely happen with AI.

What we perceive as a revolution is really accelerated evolution. And that means even major leaps keep far more than they toss.

95% of the time, what we call the future is actually the past.

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